D.D. 12/06/05

Chris Devaney, Executive Director of the TN GOP, says that Bredesen can be beaten in 2006 and Rep. Beth Harwell might be the one to do it. Devaney spoke to the Chattanooga Pachyderm Club. Today's news reveals that that may be a possibility if Republicans can tie it all together.

• Key to Weakness? -- If Republicans expect to beat Bredesen, one way they might approach it is on ethics. The Tennessee Highway Patrol continues to splash the Tennessean cover, with stories of officers coming in due to the inequities found in their background checks and TN Highway Patrol Col. Lynn Pitts, who it was revealed bid on a boat auction in violation of state law that prohibits agency officials from bidding on property their department confiscated.
• TennCare -- The principle objective in any plan to defeat Bredesen will naturally center around TennCare and chipping away at his base. For a Republican, unfortunately this will require the mixed message that won't alienate libertarians who were in favor of the cuts and Bredesen's left-of-center base, who are looking for anyone other than Bredesen to vote for. This Chattanoogan article seems to give a hint of what Republicans have come up with so far. 'Mr. Devaney said the GOP is working on its own TennCare plan that will "either revamp TennCare or scrap it."' Running to the right of Bredesen on TennCare may make a few people happy, but it won't accomplish the objective to blistering Bredesen's base by continuing to point out that Bredesen has masked the word 'reform' for draconian cuts and add backs, a political shell game affecting people's lives. The message should not be that the Republicans would be more draconian by ending TennCare all together, even if many Republicans would like to see that happen. Of course the Republican nominee can't exactly go to Bredesen's left either, without being labeled the dooming 'R-I-N-O.'
• Pre-K Quagmire -- In the 'I told you so' department (see this entry), Governor Bredesen now says he wants to expand funding to the Pre-K program he created last year by diverting lottery funding. "When I proposed the lottery money, it was always on the basis that we would continue that piece forward indefinitely," Bredesen said. "But I knew that any new money would have to come from the general fund. It was just a way of getting it started in a tough year." The fiscal quagmire of this Pre-K program might piss off the few non-party conservatives who remain loyal to Bredesen, but that won't be enough to win.
• Tennessee Waltz -- Any one following the Tennessee Waltz investigation and the degree to which both parties have presented tougher ethics laws in light of the investigation knows that the Republicans have been the party to present the toughest ethics package and it has generally stalled because of the Democratic power structure, which has been in place for some time sees little wrong with the status quo. Bredesen's political alliances with key House and Senate Democrats may hurt him in the end. Republicans following Tennessee Waltz, forced their one indicted member to resign, even to great detriment of keeping control of his seat.* So far Democrats have not only not forced their indicted members to resign, they largely haven't even commented on the investigation and some of the indicted members remain key players within the Democratic establishment in the Legislature.

Most importantly, whoever is going to challenge Bredesen needs to enter the race now. It will take more than a year of heavy campaigning to beat him, so all time now spent in debate on who the nominee is going to be is wasted time when the nominee should already be clear and already be attacking. Bredesen's poll numbers are sinking slightly on their own, but it wouldn't help to have a full-time Republican Gubernatorial candidate pushing that along, if the Republicans are serious about their goals. Then again, I've been one of the more pessimistic commentators on the subject of Bredesen being beaten by any Republican.

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* In District 22, Devaney also said that Democrats have been using push polling in the special election race to replace Rep. Chris Newton.Democrat Sally Love will face Republican Eric Watson in a January special election. Democrat spokesman Will Pinkston says he wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans are talking about their own "push poll." Once again political operatives are muddling the words of their own operations. I've covered the difference between "push polling" and "ballot testing" before.