D.D. 05/12/05

John Brown poses the question of who will challenge Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen in 2006. With all the hype already surrounding the 2006 Senate race, it's easy to hope that one in the crowded field of four would switch over and run for Governor for the GOP, however, I doubt any will. Brown and others have made some valid points about Bredesen's vulnerability, mostly around the TennCare issue, which has caused problems with Bredesen's Democratic base. However, there are obvious problems- will a Republican be able to challenge Bredesen from the left (like on the TennCare issue) and the right (like on Pre-K education plans and fiscal issues) and still sound credible? Another problem any general election challenger would face would be providing adequate alternatives to Bredesen's TennCare cuts. It has been said that every person who falters and is truly in need because of the "draconian" cuts will become a Republican ad, and that is true. What is also true is Bredesen's response- which is "what would you do?" A Bredesen ad response might sound something like this: "While my opponent continues to launch nasty attack ads on my policy on TennCare and offering no solutions of his own, my leadership is pushing the state forward with policies that will eliminate fraud and ensure the longterm fiscal success of state government and I hope, permanently eliminate the need for a state income tax." And that will be that. I still content that as unfortunate as it is for Republicans, most of the talk about Bredesen being vulnerable- in a general election is just that- talk.

That's not to say Bredesen can't be beat- I believe that he can. The means, however, seems unlikely. The way to beat Bredesen would be to make him spend money- a lot of money- during an extensive and hateful Democratic primary that would divide party loyalists even more. A Democrat attacking Bredesen from the left would cripple his shield enough for a Republican to slip in, assuming they were well connected enough in East Tennessee to prevent a significant grassroots movement like Republicans for Bredesen and Bredesen's GOP support dwindled over counter-examples of fiscal mismanagement- like the pre-K program (which I'm sure polls beautifully). However, Bredesen seems to have a firm enough grip on the state Democratic Party and Democratic fundraisers to prevent much dissent and caulk leaks in his ship. That means any primary challenger would have to be a credible grassroots candidate- a candidate I'm not sure exists.

Call me pessimistic, but I'm not sure a credible GOP candidate who wants to run for something else in years to come should waste one of their nine lives on this race. That is, unless Bredesen bows out.