D.D. 05/25/05

Rob Huddleston speculates on what the filibuster compromise will mean for the 2006 US Senate race here in Tennessee: "...When Ed announced that he was running for Frist's seat, the first issue that he cited was the need to confirm federal judges, stating that it was his intent once reaching the Senate to push for a seat on the Committee on the Judiciary...This issue is still in play, thanks for the traitorous McCain and his cohorts. Also, Bryant benefits if the Frist family continues to support Bob Corker. Corker needs for someone to help him win over conservative East Tennessee voters..."

I think a lot remains to be seen on how the compromise will affect the 2006 election. For one thing, if the compromise doesn't result in many negatives- like a Supreme Court nominee being filibustered- then I doubt voters, even social conservatives, will turn on that issue. However, Ed Bryant does own this issue- and if it is a legitimate concern, Huddleston is likely right- it may turn votes for Bryant. However, I think Huddleston's analysis greatly overestimates the makeup of "conservative East Tennessee". For one thing, Democrat Bredesen picked up a lot of East Tennessee by sounding like a pragmatic Republican- the same kind of rhetoric we're hearing from Corker (and the same reason people are calling him a RINO). I don't think that Democrats outside of Chattanooga will vote in a Republican primary for Corker, as some do, but I also don't think that Corker will have a problem winning Knox and Hamilton Counties, two counties that usually are good indicators on how the rest of East Tennessee is going to trend.

Another point- the voters that Bryant stands to pick up are located in Williamson County and the 7th Congressional district, the district he used to represent. Most social conservatives, it would seem, are already committed to Bryant, so I'm not sure how much he'll benefit from the filibuster issue, which is essentially a social conservative issue. Still, if the filibuster issue plays out like many are saying it will, the issue could very well provide a boost for Ed Bryant.