D.D. 03/16/05

Harold Ford Jr recently said that he doesn't expect Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker to be the nominee that he would presumably face in the 2006 State Senate race because Corker isn't well known. What Ford seems to miss is the fact that Corker already has $2 million in the bank and 18 months to change that. With Van Hilleary entering the race, Corker has to be happy. Even though Van starts out with big leads in name recognition, Van's loss in East Tennesee during the 2002 makes the theory that Van will cut into Corker's East Tennessee numbers carry a lot less weight. Here are some advantages and disavantages as I see it-



Positives for Bob Corker: The two counties where folks are already admiting Corker has a great advantage- Knox and Hamilton Counties comprise an average 12.73% of the total Republican active voters state wide by themselves. More interestingly those two counties are third and fourth on the list of counties that have increased their statewide voter share from 2002 to 2004- meaning they are on the upswing active voters. All three of the past Chairman of the Shelby County Republican Party have endorsed Corker (see above link). While I'm not sure that will translate into actual voters casting ballots for Corker in a county that Ed Bryant won in 2002, it does signal that political insiders, even in West Tennessee, think Corker's going to win.



Positives for Ed Bryant: Ed Bryant won 22 counties and 44% of the total vote in 2002 against perhaps one of the largest and most well connected political figures in Tennessee- Lamar Alexander. Among the 22 counties he won in 2002, he won Shelby County, the County with the largest voter share, by 16.17%. Counties in Middle to Middle West Tennesee voted heavily for Bryant, who formally represented the area in Congress. In fact, the victories in Perry, McNairy, Henderson, Hardeman, Fayette, and Chester Counties were so significant, I think it's safe to say Bryant will carry all of those in 2006. Bryant's grassroots campaigning campaigning coupled with his existing name identification make him somewhat of a wild card. A lot will depend on his ability to fundraise, which if his recently hired consultants are any indication, he's serious about.



Positives for Van Hilleary: Van Hilleary's decision to settle down in Rutherford County certainly wasn't a bad one. Rutherford County has shot up in state wide voter share from 2002 to 2004 by a margin of .35%, making it the second fastest growing county in electoral importance in the state. Rutherford coupled with the conservative Williamson County, where Van should do well, compromise about 6% of voting Republicans statewide. Van should mop up in Middle East Tenessee including areas he formally represented in Congress. After all, he was one of the few, if not the only Republican to win the Congressional seat currently occupied by conservative Democrat Lincoln Davis in many, many years.



One Unknown: Davidson County which is right up there in significance as far as providing a significant share of state-wide voters, even though it's share is declining, will be interesting to see. Bryant only lost the county in 2002 by 10% of the vote, but it may have been because Alexander was perceived as the more moderate candidate that metropolitian counties tend to prefer- that bodes well for Corker. If Beth Harwell stays in the race, she could do quite well in Davidson because he represents that area in the State Legislature.