D.D. 03/02/05

News: State Senator Rosalind Kurita who is the underdog in the race to jump to the US Senate has released her polling numbers via a press release, apparently obtained by B4B. Decision Research surveyed two samples- one 400 LVs and 400 LHDs for a primary poll. The margin of error in both polls was ± 4.9%. The poll shows a one-point edge to Bob Corker (38%) in a general election over Kurita (37%) and a two-point underdog against Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (39%/37%). The "informed" or "message tested" ballot shows Kurita ahead in a Democratic primary (44%-39%-17%). The generic ballot still shows Tennessee as a swing state with 38% GOP, 36% Dem, and 27% Und.



Analysis: Why did the survey only ballot test against Bob Corker? Probably because other polls show that any well known GOP candidate would blow Kurita and Ford out of the water. Kurita probably did test them, she just isn't releasing results because they show her considerably behind. That's also probably why she didn't release the results of their "non-informed" ballot test in the Democratic Primary, where Harold Ford's considerable name recognition over State Senator Kurita probably showed her pretty far behind. It's not good news for Kurita that even her message tested ballot (what some people use to call a benchmark survey a push poll) only gave an edge of 5 points. That means that if Kurita executes characterizing herself perfectly and managed to completely define Ford the way she wants to- she'll still only marginally win. Come to think of it- why did Kurita release this poll at all? It shows nothing but bad news for her, including a loss in the general election to Bob Corker. B4B seems to think it's the cause of cold feet for Ford- I don't think so. I'd say Jackson Baker's analysis is more right on in that regard.